Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 31%, against 16% on a calm day. Safest: OO 3116 at 12:49, 31%.

Nonstops that day


OO 3116 SkyWest	SEA 12:49	ACV 14:39	31%	16%	1.8%	no record
OO 3015 SkyWest	SEA 13:08	ACV 15:02	31%	17%	1.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Arcata/Eureka on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	2h 37m Denver	DEN 11:20 → ACV 13:24UA 5506 · flown by SkyWest	8h 24m	98%	83%
United Details →	SEA 08:45 → SFO 11:03UA 2831	3h 01m San Francisco	SFO 14:04 → ACV 15:25UA 4715 · flown by SkyWest	6h 40m	96%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON