Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 569 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–18%.

Safest bet that day DL 569 SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AS 334 SEA 09:05 → ATL 16:57 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 569 Delta Flight history →	SEA 06:00	ATL 13:53	5%	2%	0.7%	95%
DL 652 Delta Flight history →	SEA 00:02	ATL 07:46	10%	3%	0.7%	89%
DL 567 Delta Flight history →	SEA 23:19	ATL 06:57	13%	2%	0.6%	84%
DL 542 Delta Flight history →	SEA 14:53	ATL 22:39	14%	3%	0.6%	80%
DL 560 Delta Flight history →	SEA 09:18	ATL 17:11	17%	3%	0.7%	87%
DL 554 Delta Flight history →	SEA 11:59	ATL 20:04	17%	3%	0.6%	78%
AS 464 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 00:14	ATL 07:37	18%	3%	0.7%	88%
AS 727 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 16:05	ATL 23:59	18%	3%	0.6%	82%
DL 562 Delta Flight history →	SEA 10:21	ATL 17:59	18%	3%	0.7%	83%
AS 334 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:05	ATL 16:57	26%	3%	0.6%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON