Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 739 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–19%.

Safest bet that day DL 739 SEA 07:15 → AUS 13:26 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 4506 SEA 14:36 → AUS 20:40 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 739 Delta Flight history →	SEA 07:15	AUS 13:26	8%	3%	0.7%	90%
DL 848 Delta Flight history →	SEA 17:50	AUS 23:53	17%	4%	0.6%	75%
DL 831 Delta Flight history →	SEA 12:39	AUS 18:46	18%	4%	0.6%	79%
AS 372 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 18:19	AUS 00:31	19%	3%	0.6%	78%
AS 352 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:19	AUS 15:22	23%	3%	0.6%	84%
AS 502 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:59	AUS 18:02	25%	3%	0.6%	85%worse than usual
WN 4506 Southwest	SEA 14:36	AUS 20:40	28%	6%	0.5%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	50m Denver	DEN 09:33 → AUS 12:54UA 8126	5h 54m	87%	79%
Delta Details →	SEA 13:30 → SLC 16:40DL 1120	1h 05m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:45 → AUS 21:30DL 2728	6h 00m	89%	76%
Delta Details →	SEA 09:30 → SLC 12:36DL 1016	53m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:29 → AUS 17:19DL 2689	5h 49m	86%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON