Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AS 2457 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 20:59	BIL 23:51	8%	2%	1.0%	92%
AS 2337 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 08:08	BIL 11:05	12%	0%	0.0%	88%
AS 2353 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 15:49	BIL 18:42	17%	3%	0.9%	83%
AS 2054 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 10:09	BIL 13:05	18%	4%	1.9%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON