Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 15–23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 815 SEA 17:30 → BNA 23:54 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest AS 522 SEA 09:52 → BNA 16:11 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 815 Delta Flight history →	SEA 17:30	BNA 23:54	15%	3%	0.6%	82%
WN 2614 Southwest	SEA 23:17	BNA 05:22	17%	5%	0.5%	no record
AS 504 Alaska	SEA 18:19	BNA 00:34	22%	4%	0.6%	no record
AS 522 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:52	BNA 16:11	23%	4%	0.6%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON