Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 3750 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 6–16%.

Safest bet that day DL 3750 SEA 07:15 → BOI 09:53 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AS 597 SEA 10:15 → BOI 12:38 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 3750 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 07:15	BOI 09:53	5%	2%	0.5%	93%
DL 3692 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 19:40	BOI 22:18	6%	2%	0.5%	87%
AS 248 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 07:07	BOI 09:40	8%	2%	0.5%	90%
DL 3959 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 12:30	BOI 15:11	11%	3%	0.5%	88%
DL 3678 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 09:00	BOI 11:38	11%	3%	0.5%	91%
DL 3688 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 16:10	BOI 18:46	11%	3%	0.5%	86%
DL 4127 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 14:50	BOI 17:24	12%	3%	0.5%	88%
AS 586 Alaska	SEA 18:10	BOI 20:33	16%	3%	0.5%	no record
AS 467 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 13:19	BOI 15:41	21%	3%	0.5%	87%
AS 597 Alaska	SEA 10:15	BOI 12:38	28%	3%	0.5%	no record
AS 2061 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 15:45	BOI 18:11	10%	4%	0.0%	90%
AS 2034 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 19:59	BOI 22:24	14%	8%	0.0%	86%
AS 2109 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 17:40	BOI 20:07	18%	2%	0.7%	82%
AS 2230 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 09:59	BOI 12:26	19%	5%	0.0%	81%
AS 2106 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 11:36	BOI 14:07	29%	4%	1.8%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON