Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 459 at 07:29 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–24%.

Safest bet that day DL 459 SEA 07:29 → BOS 16:00 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest B6 398 SEA 23:47 → BOS 08:19 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 459 Delta Flight history →	SEA 07:29	BOS 16:00	8%	3%	0.6%	88%
DL 473 Delta Flight history →	SEA 23:15	BOS 07:35	11%	2%	0.6%	82%
DL 474 Delta Flight history →	SEA 16:00	BOS 00:14	16%	3%	0.6%	71%
AS 214 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 23:01	BOS 07:12	18%	2%	0.6%	81%
AS 460 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 15:36	BOS 23:59	19%	3%	0.6%	80%
AS 306 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 12:43	BOS 21:08	20%	4%	0.6%	76%
DL 438 Delta Flight history →	SEA 11:15	BOS 19:43	22%	4%	0.6%	65%
AS 357 Alaska	SEA 09:47	BOS 17:58	24%	4%	0.6%	no record
B6 398 JetBlue Flight history →	SEA 23:47	BOS 08:19	24%	5%	0.6%	55%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SEA 00:13 → MSP 05:24DL 953	1h 36m Minneapolis	MSP 07:00 → BOS 10:45DL 2649	7h 32m	97%	90%
Delta Details →	SEA 05:30 → DTW 12:42DL 812	1h 19m Detroit	DTW 14:01 → BOS 16:09DL 1171	7h 39m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:05 → MSP 11:24DL 943	1h 26m Minneapolis	MSP 12:50 → BOS 16:50DL 2558	7h 45m	97%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON