Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 22–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 1388 SEA 07:37 → BUR 09:44 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AS 478 SEA 10:07 → BUR 12:34 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 1388 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 07:37	BUR 09:44	22%	3%	1.6%	87%
AS 529 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 13:52	BUR 16:19	23%	3%	0.9%	73%
AS 1389 Alaska	SEA 08:51	BUR 11:17	23%	3%	1.8%	no record
AS 530 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 16:42	BUR 18:54	25%	3%	0.9%	84%
AS 478 Alaska	SEA 10:07	BUR 12:34	25%	4%	1.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON