Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 12–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 3525 SEA 23:20 → BWI 07:10 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 378 SEA 09:03 → BWI 17:04 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3525 Southwest	SEA 23:20	BWI 07:10	12%	3%	0.5%	no record
AS 781 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 21:36	BWI 05:41	12%	2%	0.6%	90%
AS 378 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:03	BWI 17:04	17%	3%	0.6%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON