Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Cleveland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Nonstops that day


AS 269 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 22:13	CLE 05:43	11%	2%	0.6%	83%
AS 216 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:10	CLE 16:36	17%	3%	0.6%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cleveland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Cleveland is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SEA 00:13 → MSP 05:24DL 953	1h 50m Minneapolis	MSP 07:14 → CLE 10:14DL 1083	7h 01m	99%	94%
Delta Details →	SEA 00:02 → ATL 07:46DL 652	1h 57m Atlanta	ATL 09:43 → CLE 11:32DL 2978	8h 30m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569	2h 58m Atlanta	ATL 16:51 → CLE 18:41DL 1350	9h 41m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	SEA 11:09 → SLC 14:15DL 1265	3h 10m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:25 → CLE 22:58DL 2855	8h 49m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	SEA 12:16 → MSP 17:35DL 536	3h 16m Minneapolis	MSP 20:51 → CLE 23:43DL 1392	8h 27m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	SEA 11:59 → ATL 20:04DL 554	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → CLE 00:49 +1DL 1320	9h 50m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	SEA 09:18 → ATL 17:11DL 560	3h 24m Atlanta	ATL 20:35 → CLE 22:26DL 1339	10h 08m	98%	85%
United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	57m Denver	DEN 09:40 → CLE 14:36UA 619	6h 36m	92%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SEA 10:21 → ATL 17:59DL 562	50m Atlanta	ATL 18:49 → CLE 20:41DL 2150	7h 20m	73%	64%
United Details →	SEA 07:29 → SFO 09:36UA 499	48m San Francisco	SFO 10:24 → CLE 18:09UA 2603	7h 40m	63%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON