Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 16–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 381 SEA 10:34 → CLT 18:32 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 585 SEA 12:37 → CLT 20:34 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 381 American Flight history →	SEA 10:34	CLT 18:32	16%	4%	0.6%	94%worse than usual
AA 854 American Flight history →	SEA 08:59	CLT 17:05	16%	4%	0.6%	83%
AA 585 American	SEA 12:37	CLT 20:34	20%	5%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SEA 05:30 → DTW 12:42DL 812	1h 23m Detroit	DTW 14:05 → CLT 15:55DL 1429	7h 25m	98%	92%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569	1h 07m Atlanta	ATL 15:00 → CLT 16:17DL 3031	7h 17m	96%	85%
United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	1h 06m Denver	DEN 09:49 → CLT 15:03UA 2231	7h 03m	97%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON