tailodds FORECAST
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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Detroit, leaving 11:20, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Columbus on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 280 Alaska Flight history → SEA 22:12 CMH 05:40 16% 2% 0.6% 90%
AS 450 Alaska Flight history → SEA 09:41 CMH 17:09 25% 3% 0.6% 82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbus on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Columbus is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SEA 09:45 → DTW 17:04DL 2324 2h 50m Detroit DTW 19:54 → CMH 21:02DL 5838 · flown by Republic 8h 17m 100% 94%
AmericanDetails → SEA 00:15 → ORD 06:18AA 379 1h 16m Chicago ORD 07:34 → CMH 10:01AA 3414 · flown by Envoy 6h 46m 100% 94%
DeltaDetails → SEA 00:29 → ATL 08:13DL 652 3h 53m Atlanta ATL 12:06 → CMH 13:38DL 1750 10h 09m 100% 93%
DeltaDetails → SEA 00:19 → MSP 05:33DL 953 1h 37m Minneapolis MSP 07:10 → CMH 10:02DL 2772 6h 43m 97% 92%
DeltaDetails → SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569 3h 32m Atlanta ATL 17:25 → CMH 19:03DL 2786 10h 03m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → SEA 07:29 → BOS 16:00DL 459 3h 25m Boston BOS 19:25 → CMH 21:50DL 5629 · flown by Republic 11h 21m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → SEA 09:18 → ATL 17:11DL 560 3h 17m Atlanta ATL 20:28 → CMH 22:09DL 1501 9h 51m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → SEA 12:16 → MSP 17:35DL 536 2h 40m Minneapolis MSP 20:15 → CMH 23:07DL 1356 7h 51m 98% 89%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SEA 10:52 → ORD 17:05UA 2835 46m Chicago ORD 17:51 → CMH 20:15UA 1278 6h 23m 67% 55%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON