tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: DL 558 at 11:40 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 558 Delta Flight history → SEA 11:40 CVG 19:05 15% 3% 0.6% 89%
AS 451 Alaska SEA 11:11 CVG 18:24 30% 5% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hebron on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hebron is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SEA 00:02 → ATL 07:46DL 652 2h 13m Atlanta ATL 09:59 → CVG 11:25DL 3160 8h 23m 99% 93%
DeltaDetails → SEA 00:13 → MSP 05:24DL 953 1h 50m Minneapolis MSP 07:14 → CVG 10:03DL 954 6h 50m 99% 93%
DeltaDetails → SEA 16:25 → LAS 19:00DL 2955 3h 55m Las Vegas LAS 22:55 → CVG 05:42 +1DL 2794 10h 17m 100% 93%
DeltaDetails → SEA 11:59 → ATL 20:04DL 554 3h 07m Atlanta ATL 23:11 → CVG 00:39 +1DL 2395 9h 40m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → SEA 12:16 → MSP 17:35DL 536 2h 45m Minneapolis MSP 20:20 → CVG 23:11DL 1469 7h 55m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128 1h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 09:40 → CVG 15:03DL 2273 6h 33m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569 1h 22m Atlanta ATL 15:15 → CVG 16:41DL 1008 7h 41m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → SEA 17:30 → LAX 20:13DL 2861 2h 32m Los Angeles LAX 22:45 → CVG 05:59 +1DL 458 9h 29m 98% 87%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SEA 09:18 → ATL 17:11DL 560 48m Atlanta ATL 17:59 → CVG 19:25DL 3119 7h 07m 59% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON