Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 786 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–24%.

Safest bet that day DL 786 SEA 07:20 → DCA 15:21 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AS 2 SEA 13:46 → DCA 21:59 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 786 Delta Flight history →	SEA 07:20	DCA 15:21	9%	3%	0.7%	91%
AS 4 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:00	DCA 16:16	18%	3%	0.6%	86%
AS 2 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 13:46	DCA 21:59	24%	5%	0.6%	70%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	SEA 13:44 → ORD 19:46AA 2966	1h 09m Chicago	ORD 20:55 → DCA 23:59AA 1187	7h 15m	87%	74%
United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	47m Denver	DEN 09:30 → DCA 14:59UA 789	6h 59m	80%	71%
Delta Details →	SEA 10:21 → ATL 17:59DL 562	56m Atlanta	ATL 18:55 → DCA 20:47DL 325	7h 26m	79%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON