tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, QX 2182 at 14:24, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
QX 2182 Horizon SEA 14:24 ELP 18:55 16% 6% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach El Paso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (El Paso is 1 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601 2h 40m Denver DEN 11:23 → ELP 13:17UA 2128 7h 17m 98% 86%
AmericanDetails → SEA 13:44 → ORD 19:46AA 2966 1h 40m Chicago ORD 21:26 → ELP 23:56AA 3948 · flown by Envoy 9h 12m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → SEA 07:00 → IAH 13:26UA 2135 3h 09m Houston IAH 16:35 → ELP 17:46UA 3983 · flown by Mesa 9h 46m 97% 81%
AmericanDetails → SEA 05:05 → DFW 11:02AA 2748 3h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:41 → ELP 15:36AA 1681 9h 31m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → SEA 09:18 → ATL 17:11DL 560 2h 28m Atlanta ATL 19:39 → ELP 20:50DL 1713 10h 32m 97% 79%
AmericanDetails → SEA 12:04 → PHX 15:13AA 4117 · flown by Envoy 3h 51m Phoenix PHX 19:04 → ELP 21:30AA 6369 · flown by SkyWest 8h 26m 93% 78%
AmericanDetails → SEA 07:26 → DFW 13:20AA 1667 2h 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:12 → ELP 17:09AA 2097 8h 43m 96% 77%
AmericanDetails → SEA 11:40 → DFW 17:50AA 767 3h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:33 → ELP 22:20AA 1514 9h 40m 98% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SEA 11:40 → DFW 17:50AA 767 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:41 → ELP 19:34AA 555 6h 54m 55% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON