Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 1900 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14%.

Safest bet that day UA 1900 SEA 07:30 → EWR 15:51 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest UA 1708 SEA 13:05 → EWR 21:29 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1900 United Flight history →	SEA 07:30	EWR 15:51	9%	3%	0.7%	90%
UA 2017 United	SEA 23:12	EWR 07:09	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 314 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 22:40	EWR 06:59	14%	2%	0.7%	86%
AS 292 Alaska	SEA 10:20	EWR 18:22	20%	4%	0.8%	no record
AS 295 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:04	EWR 17:05	22%	3%	0.8%	83%
UA 1708 United Flight history →	SEA 13:05	EWR 21:29	22%	5%	0.6%	74%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SEA 05:30 → DTW 12:42DL 812	1h 28m Detroit	DTW 14:10 → EWR 15:54DL 2573	7h 24m	97%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON