tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: AS 3343 at 20:25 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 3343 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → SEA 20:25 FAT 22:46 13% 3% 0.6% 85%
AS 383 Alaska Flight history → SEA 13:13 FAT 15:18 30% 3% 0.6% 78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fresno on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128 2h 25m Salt Lake City SLC 10:55 → FAT 11:47DL 3768 · flown by SkyWest 6h 17m 99% 94%
DeltaDetails → SEA 13:30 → SLC 16:40DL 1120 3h 50m Salt Lake City SLC 20:30 → FAT 21:17DL 3774 · flown by SkyWest 7h 47m 99% 93%
DeltaDetails → SEA 09:30 → SLC 12:36DL 1016 3h 07m Salt Lake City SLC 15:43 → FAT 16:32DL 3777 · flown by SkyWest 7h 02m 99% 92%
UnitedDetails → SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601 2h 46m Denver DEN 11:29 → FAT 13:14UA 5655 · flown by SkyWest 8h 14m 99% 89%
AmericanDetails → SEA 06:16 → PHX 09:18AA 3792 · flown by Envoy 1h 18m Phoenix PHX 10:36 → FAT 12:37AA 2396 6h 21m 95% 85%
UnitedDetails → SEA 08:56 → DEN 12:45UA 1505 2h 40m Denver DEN 15:25 → FAT 17:00UA 5978 · flown by SkyWest 8h 04m 95% 84%
AlaskaDetails → SEA 09:00 → SAN 11:39AS 650 2h 51m San Diego SAN 14:30 → FAT 15:41AS 3388 · flown by SkyWest 6h 41m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → SEA 12:04 → PHX 15:13AA 4117 · flown by Envoy 2h 16m Phoenix PHX 17:29 → FAT 19:12AA 6317 · flown by SkyWest 7h 08m 95% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SEA 15:21 → DFW 21:24AA 757 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:10 → FAT 00:03 +1AA 2958 8h 42m 74% 60%
AmericanDetails → SEA 10:22 → DFW 16:30AA 707 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:21 → FAT 18:43AA 1223 8h 21m 65% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON