Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 3677 at 19:57 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–34%.

Safest bet that day DL 3677 SEA 19:57 → GEG 21:13 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AS 454 SEA 11:28 → GEG 12:31 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 3677 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 19:57	GEG 21:13	10%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 3830 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 07:15	GEG 08:32	10%	2%	0.6%	96%
DL 3857 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 15:40	GEG 16:55	11%	2%	0.6%	93%
DL 4145 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 14:35	GEG 15:47	13%	3%	0.6%	88%
DL 3832 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 17:59	GEG 19:15	13%	2%	0.6%	86%
DL 3824 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 09:35	GEG 10:48	15%	3%	0.6%	89%
DL 3754 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 10:50	GEG 12:11	16%	3%	0.6%	82%
OO 3142 SkyWest	SEA 10:35	GEG 11:51	18%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 2354 Delta Flight history →	SEA 22:45	GEG 23:55	20%	4%	0.6%	60%
AS 1382 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 23:14	GEG 00:00	23%	2%	0.6%	85%
AS 347 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 21:15	GEG 22:18	24%	2%	0.6%	79%
AS 448 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 19:16	GEG 20:22	25%	2%	0.6%	83%
AS 454 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:28	GEG 12:31	34%	2%	0.6%	82%worse than usual
AS 2135 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 07:20	GEG 08:26	7%	2%	0.0%	93%
AS 2200 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 09:55	GEG 11:00	8%	2%	1.9%	92%
AS 2074 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 14:22	GEG 15:25	16%	0%	1.8%	84%
AS 2349 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 13:35	GEG 14:38	27%	0%	8.3%	73%
AS 2071 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 21:30	GEG 22:36	30%	11%	0.0%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON