Today: DL 419 at 16:46 is the safest bet, 23% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28–34%.

Safest bet today DL 419 SEA 16:46 → HNL 19:24 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time Riskiest AS 1879 SEA 18:14 → HNL 20:59 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 30% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 31% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 419 Delta Flight history →	SEA 16:46	HNL 19:24	23%	5%	0.1%	74%
AS 901 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 21:03	HNL 23:53	28%	6%	0.2%	72%
AS 121 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 16:20	HNL 19:16	30%	7%	0.2%	70%
AS 268 Alaska	SEA 20:50	HNL 23:33	32%	7%	0.2%	no record
AS 451 Alaska	SEA 19:04	HNL 21:47	33%	7%	0.2%	no record
AS 1879 Alaska	SEA 18:14	HNL 20:59	34%	7%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON