Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: one nonstop, WN 3744 at 09:38, with a 27% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 3744 Southwest	SEA 09:38	HOU 15:46	27%	4%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 2 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SEA 00:02 → ATL 07:46DL 652	3h 19m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → HOU 12:10DL 1195	10h 08m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569	1h 19m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	8h 22m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	SEA 09:18 → ATL 17:11DL 560	3h 34m Atlanta	ATL 20:45 → HOU 21:51DL 2051	10h 33m	98%	84%
American Details →	SEA 10:22 → DFW 16:30AA 707	2h 13m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:43 → HOU 20:04AA 3391 · flown by Envoy	7h 42m	93%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SEA 11:40 → DFW 17:50AA 767	53m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:43 → HOU 20:04AA 3391 · flown by Envoy	6h 24m	67%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON