Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 2693 at 23:11 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 2693 SEA 23:11 → IAD 06:59 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 675 SEA 16:31 → IAD 00:19 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2693 United	SEA 23:11	IAD 06:59	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 1523 United	SEA 08:30	IAD 16:43	13%	3%	0.5%	no record
AS 367 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 22:43	IAD 06:39	15%	2%	0.6%	84%
DL 541 Delta Flight history →	SEA 16:05	IAD 00:08	18%	3%	0.6%	77%
AS 737 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:13	IAD 17:11	22%	3%	0.6%	84%
AS 675 Alaska	SEA 16:31	IAD 00:19	22%	3%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SEA 13:30 → SLC 16:40DL 1120	50m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:30 → IAD 23:29DL 847	6h 59m	78%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON