Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 2702 at 00:14 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 2702 SEA 00:14 → IAH 06:29 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 438 SEA 10:52 → IAH 17:16 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2702 United	SEA 00:14	IAH 06:29	10%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 2135 United Flight history →	SEA 07:00	IAH 13:26	13%	3%	0.6%	92%
UA 8130 United	SEA 17:03	IAH 23:19	16%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 1752 United	SEA 12:14	IAH 18:28	20%	6%	0.6%	no record
AS 240 Alaska	SEA 17:48	IAH 00:04	25%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 438 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 10:52	IAH 17:16	33%	4%	0.6%	70%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128	1h 06m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:36 → IAH 13:46DL 1532	6h 16m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	SEA 13:30 → SLC 16:40DL 1120	1h 05m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:45 → IAH 21:50DL 2514	6h 20m	89%	76%
United Details →	SEA 15:41 → DEN 19:20UA 757	1h 08m Denver	DEN 20:28 → IAH 23:59UA 2419	6h 18m	89%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON