Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:44 am at Seattle)

Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, AS 2117 at 09:08, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AS 2117 Alaska flown by Horizon Flight history →	SEA 09:08	ICT 14:40	18%	4%	0.6%	87%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Wichita on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Wichita is 2 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569	2h 38m Atlanta	ATL 16:31 → ICT 17:47DL 2128	9h 47m	100%	88%
United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	1h 12m Denver	DEN 09:55 → ICT 12:27UA 5497 · flown by SkyWest	5h 27m	98%	86%
United Details →	SEA 15:48 → DEN 19:34UA 757	1h 31m Denver	DEN 21:05 → ICT 23:40UA 4755 · flown by SkyWest	5h 52m	93%	85%
Delta Details →	SEA 07:20 → ATL 15:17DL 562	1h 26m Atlanta	ATL 16:43 → ICT 18:02DL 1418	8h 42m	94%	83%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:05 → MSP 11:24DL 943	2h 05m Minneapolis	MSP 13:29 → ICT 15:39DL 3807 · flown by SkyWest	7h 34m	98%	82%
American Details →	SEA 14:52 → DFW 20:50AA 717	1h 49m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:39 → ICT 00:09 +1AA 3691 · flown by Envoy	7h 17m	91%	82%
United Details →	SEA 08:26 → DEN 12:12UA 1505	1h 47m Denver	DEN 13:59 → ICT 16:34UA 5454 · flown by SkyWest	6h 08m	95%	80%
Delta Details →	SEA 11:59 → ATL 20:04DL 554	1h 22m Atlanta	ATL 21:26 → ICT 22:46DL 2959	8h 47m	91%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON