Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AS 624 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 22:39	IND 05:44	15%	2%	0.6%	79%
AS 500 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:09	IND 16:16	22%	3%	0.7%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Indianapolis is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SEA 00:13 → MSP 05:24DL 953	3h 26m Minneapolis	MSP 08:50 → IND 11:28DL 2456	8h 15m	100%	95%
Delta Details →	SEA 00:02 → ATL 07:46DL 652	3h 19m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → IND 12:36DL 3013	9h 34m	100%	94%
American Details →	SEA 13:44 → ORD 19:46AA 2966	2h 41m Chicago	ORD 22:27 → IND 00:51 +1AA 4740 · flown by Republic	8h 07m	100%	93%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569	2h 02m Atlanta	ATL 15:55 → IND 17:35DL 2979	8h 35m	99%	92%
United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	1h 15m Denver	DEN 09:58 → IND 14:35UA 1522	6h 35m	99%	92%
American Details →	SEA 00:15 → ORD 06:18AA 379	2h 00m Chicago	ORD 08:18 → IND 10:22AA 3907 · flown by Envoy	7h 07m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:05 → MSP 11:24DL 943	1h 31m Minneapolis	MSP 12:55 → IND 15:33DL 2910	6h 28m	97%	91%
Delta Details →	SEA 07:29 → BOS 16:00DL 459	1h 45m Boston	BOS 17:45 → IND 20:34DL 5616 · flown by Republic	10h 05m	97%	90%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SEA 11:59 → ATL 20:04DL 554	47m Atlanta	ATL 20:51 → IND 22:27DL 1482	7h 28m	69%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON