Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 429 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–16%.

Safest bet that day DL 429 SEA 07:15 → JFK 15:49 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AS 34 SEA 13:44 → JFK 21:44 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 429 Delta Flight history →	SEA 07:15	JFK 15:49	6%	2%	0.7%	88%
DL 452 Delta Flight history →	SEA 22:40	JFK 06:50	10%	2%	0.7%	86%
DL 1044 Delta	SEA 17:00	JFK 00:53	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 415 Delta Flight history →	SEA 11:34	JFK 20:15	14%	4%	0.7%	74%
B6 264 JetBlue Flight history →	SEA 22:19	JFK 06:39	16%	4%	0.8%	74%
AS 16 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 07:05	JFK 15:10	16%	3%	0.7%	63%
AS 26 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:47	JFK 17:53	18%	3%	0.7%	86%
AS 34 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 13:44	JFK 21:44	24%	3%	0.7%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON