Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 30%, against 16% on a calm day. Safest: DL 2169 at 16:50, 15%.

Safest bet that day DL 2169 SEA 16:50 → JNU 18:26 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AS 209 SEA 11:24 → JNU 12:56 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Weather 30% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2169 Delta Flight history →	SEA 16:50	JNU 18:26	15%	5%	0.8%	83%
AS 61 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 07:08	JNU 08:44	32%	5%	0.9%	86%worse than usual
AS 435 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 13:43	JNU 15:17	33%	4%	0.8%	79%worse than usual
AS 7006 Alaska	SEA 09:03	JNU 10:41	35%	7%	0.8%	no record
AS 209 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:24	JNU 12:56	35%	6%	0.8%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON