Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 409 at 06:29 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 409 SEA 06:29 → LAS 08:38 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 738 SEA 13:46 → LAS 15:52 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 409 Southwest	SEA 06:29	LAS 08:38	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 2922 Delta Flight history →	SEA 07:25	LAS 10:01	6%	2%	0.7%	92%
DL 2949 Delta Flight history →	SEA 20:34	LAS 23:10	11%	3%	0.6%	81%
DL 2880 Delta Flight history →	SEA 12:29	LAS 14:54	12%	3%	0.6%	82%
DL 2905 Delta Flight history →	SEA 09:50	LAS 12:25	13%	2%	0.7%	85%
DL 2955 Delta Flight history →	SEA 16:25	LAS 19:00	13%	3%	0.6%	78%
AS 704 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 20:25	LAS 23:05	19%	3%	0.6%	89%
AS 1363 Alaska	SEA 08:32	LAS 10:55	20%	3%	0.6%	no record
F9 2408 Frontier Flight history →	SEA 09:56	LAS 12:39	20%	6%	0.8%	68%
AS 678 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 15:08	LAS 17:29	23%	3%	0.6%	67%
F9 4668 Frontier	SEA 11:26	LAS 14:07	24%	7%	0.8%	no record
WN 1081 Southwest	SEA 16:59	LAS 19:16	25%	5%	0.4%	no record
WN 4509 Southwest	SEA 13:34	LAS 15:53	26%	4%	0.4%	no record
AS 612 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:36	LAS 13:56	27%	3%	0.6%	88%worse than usual
AS 703 Alaska	SEA 17:52	LAS 20:00	30%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 738 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 13:46	LAS 15:52	31%	3%	0.6%	80%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON