Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 19–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2256 SEA 17:30 → MCI 23:00 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest AS 501 SEA 08:14 → MCI 13:41 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2256 Delta Flight history →	SEA 17:30	MCI 23:00	19%	5%	0.6%	77%
AS 497 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 18:41	MCI 00:03	22%	3%	0.6%	81%
AS 501 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:14	MCI 13:41	22%	3%	0.6%	100%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON