Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 448 at 23:15 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; morning flights run 24–28%.

Safest bet that day DL 448 SEA 23:15 → MCO 07:40 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AS 346 SEA 08:37 → MCO 17:06 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 448 Delta Flight history →	SEA 23:15	MCO 07:40	9%	3%	1.0%	85%
AS 1371 Alaska	SEA 22:59	MCO 07:07	20%	2%	0.8%	no record
DL 328 Delta Flight history →	SEA 08:51	MCO 17:35	24%	9%	1.6%	75%
AS 346 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:37	MCO 17:06	28%	9%	1.3%	88%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SEA 00:27 → ATL 08:13DL 652	1h 12m Atlanta	ATL 09:25 → MCO 10:57DL 1658	7h 30m	95%	86%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569	1h 07m Atlanta	ATL 15:00 → MCO 16:40DL 1150	7h 40m	96%	79%
Delta Details →	SEA 10:21 → ATL 17:59DL 562	1h 28m Atlanta	ATL 19:27 → MCO 21:00DL 2035	7h 39m	89%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON