Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1396 at 05:26 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 1396 SEA 05:26 → MDW 11:23 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 247 SEA 11:13 → MDW 17:07 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1396 Southwest	SEA 05:26	MDW 11:23	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 3759 Southwest	SEA 00:10	MDW 06:14	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 3534 Southwest	SEA 23:40	MDW 05:23	21%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 247 Southwest	SEA 11:13	MDW 17:07	33%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON