Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 3954 at 21:35 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 3954 SEA 21:35 → MFR 23:11 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest OO 3115 SEA 11:43 → MFR 13:23 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 3954 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 21:35	MFR 23:11	8%	2%	0.7%	90%
DL 3770 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 15:10	MFR 16:44	10%	3%	0.6%	92%
OO 3060 SkyWest	SEA 08:20	MFR 10:11	17%	6%	0.7%	no record
DL 3779 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 11:15	MFR 12:56	22%	6%	0.7%	85%
OO 3115 SkyWest	SEA 11:43	MFR 13:23	22%	6%	0.7%	no record
AS 2461 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 22:40	MFR 00:04	11%	1%	4.2%	89%
AS 2037 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 17:47	MFR 19:13	14%	4%	1.9%	86%
AS 2111 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 08:25	MFR 09:54	18%	2%	2.3%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON