Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 00:29, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Miami on time.

Nonstops that day


DL 506 Delta Flight history →	SEA 08:09	MIA 17:16	19%	7%	0.9%	80%
AS 305 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:12	MIA 17:17	27%	8%	0.7%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SEA 00:19 → MSP 05:29DL 953	3h 34m Minneapolis	MSP 09:03 → MIA 13:40DL 793	10h 21m	100%	93%
Delta Details →	SEA 00:29 → ATL 08:09DL 652	2h 51m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332	9h 33m	100%	91%
American Details →	SEA 00:15 → ORD 06:18AA 379	2h 12m Chicago	ORD 08:30 → MIA 12:45AA 1250	9h 30m	100%	90%
American Details →	SEA 17:11 → LAX 19:44AA 6438 · flown by SkyWest	3h 09m Los Angeles	LAX 22:53 → MIA 07:11 +1AA 2777	11h 00m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	SEA 17:59 → SLC 21:06DL 1165	1h 54m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:00 → MIA 05:40 +1DL 2040	8h 41m	95%	85%
Delta Details →	SEA 11:59 → ATL 20:04DL 554	2h 49m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589	9h 56m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	SEA 12:16 → MSP 17:35DL 536	1h 18m Minneapolis	MSP 18:53 → MIA 23:35DL 2187	8h 19m	95%	83%
American Details →	SEA 18:39 → PHX 21:46AA 3934 · flown by Envoy	1h 19m Phoenix	PHX 23:05 → MIA 06:28 +1AA 2654	8h 49m	91%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON