Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:51 am at Seattle)

Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 26–27% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


QX 2294 Horizon	SEA 14:30	MRY 16:52	26%	6%	1.3%	no record
AS 2290 Alaska flown by Horizon Flight history →	SEA 15:23	MRY 17:45	27%	4%	1.8%	82%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Monterey on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	SEA 14:58 → SAN 17:38AS 765	3h 45m San Diego	SAN 21:23 → MRY 22:58AS 3005 · flown by SkyWest	8h 00m	99%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON