Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 943 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–16%.

Safest bet that day DL 943 SEA 06:05 → MSP 11:24 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AS 772 SEA 12:54 → MSP 18:07 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 943 Delta Flight history →	SEA 06:05	MSP 11:24	5%	2%	0.6%	96%
DL 953 Delta Flight history →	SEA 00:13	MSP 05:10	8%	3%	0.6%	91%
DL 949 Delta Flight history →	SEA 18:05	MSP 23:30	10%	2%	0.6%	83%
DL 536 Delta Flight history →	SEA 12:16	MSP 17:35	13%	2%	0.6%	91%
DL 942 Delta Flight history →	SEA 14:30	MSP 19:54	13%	2%	0.6%	80%
AS 527 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 19:34	MSP 00:43	16%	3%	0.6%	78%
AS 555 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:35	MSP 13:57	17%	2%	0.6%	86%
AS 772 Alaska	SEA 12:54	MSP 18:07	18%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON