tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching New Orleans on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 57% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 568 Alaska Flight history → SEA 09:37 MSY 16:16 22% 3% 0.7% 81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New Orleans is 2 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SEA 00:29 → ATL 08:09DL 652 2h 56m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MSY 11:37DL 2542 9h 08m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128 55m Salt Lake City SLC 09:25 → MSY 13:47DL 2100 6h 17m 95% 89%
UnitedDetails → SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601 1h 07m Denver DEN 09:50 → MSY 13:39UA 2273 6h 39m 97% 89%
AmericanDetails → SEA 00:15 → ORD 06:18AA 379 2h 15m Chicago ORD 08:33 → MSY 10:51AA 4040 · flown by Envoy 8h 36m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → SEA 06:05 → MSP 11:24DL 943 1h 21m Minneapolis MSP 12:45 → MSY 15:25DL 2695 7h 20m 96% 87%
DeltaDetails → SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569 3h 58m Atlanta ATL 17:51 → MSY 18:27DL 678 10h 27m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → SEA 11:59 → ATL 20:04DL 554 2h 52m Atlanta ATL 22:56 → MSY 23:31DL 2224 9h 32m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → SEA 10:05 → LAX 12:55DL 2769 3h 05m Los Angeles LAX 16:00 → MSY 21:51DL 2154 9h 46m 99% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SEA 11:40 → DFW 17:50AA 767 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:36 → MSY 20:15AA 2237 6h 35m 57% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON