Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2995 at 07:48 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 2995 SEA 07:48 → OAK 09:49 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 1328 SEA 17:16 → OAK 19:11 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2995 Southwest	SEA 07:48	OAK 09:49	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4514 Southwest	SEA 19:31	OAK 21:33	17%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 4513 Southwest	SEA 16:26	OAK 18:27	19%	5%	0.6%	no record
AS 735 Alaska	SEA 07:19	OAK 08:57	20%	3%	0.8%	no record
AS 706 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 20:57	OAK 22:46	22%	5%	0.7%	77%
AS 533 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 12:17	OAK 14:19	22%	3%	0.7%	92%worse than usual
AS 1328 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 17:16	OAK 19:11	28%	5%	0.7%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON