Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, AS 405 at 08:18, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AS 405 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:18	OKC 13:57	22%	3%	0.6%	92%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oklahoma City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oklahoma City is 2 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SEA 00:28 → ATL 08:17DL 652	2h 48m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → OKC 12:12DL 2020	9h 44m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	SEA 13:30 → SLC 16:40DL 1120	3h 50m Salt Lake City	SLC 20:30 → OKC 23:52DL 3703 · flown by SkyWest	8h 22m	98%	90%
United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	1h 22m Denver	DEN 10:05 → OKC 13:01UA 5324 · flown by SkyWest	6h 01m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	SEA 07:15 → SLC 10:26DL 2858	3h 14m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:40 → OKC 17:03DL 3882 · flown by SkyWest	7h 48m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	SEA 11:59 → ATL 20:04DL 554	2h 40m Atlanta	ATL 22:44 → OKC 23:52DL 2423	9h 53m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	SEA 09:05 → MSP 14:24DL 536	3h 46m Minneapolis	MSP 18:10 → OKC 20:15DL 3791 · flown by SkyWest	9h 10m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569	1h 22m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → OKC 16:22DL 2862	8h 22m	96%	83%
United Details →	SEA 07:00 → IAH 13:26UA 2135	3h 10m Houston	IAH 16:36 → OKC 18:13UA 6334 · flown by Mesa	9h 13m	98%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON