Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, AS 312 at 09:03, with a 24% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AS 312 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:03	OMA 14:16	24%	3%	0.6%	87%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Omaha on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Omaha is 2 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	SEA 00:15 → ORD 06:18AA 379	1h 56m Chicago	ORD 08:14 → OMA 10:04AA 4042 · flown by Envoy	7h 49m	100%	93%
Delta Details →	SEA 00:19 → MSP 05:34DL 953	3h 16m Minneapolis	MSP 08:50 → OMA 10:12DL 3831 · flown by SkyWest	7h 53m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	SEA 09:45 → DTW 17:04DL 2324	2h 41m Detroit	DTW 19:45 → OMA 20:53DL 3715 · flown by SkyWest	9h 08m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128	1h 05m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:35 → OMA 12:56DL 4114 · flown by SkyWest	5h 26m	96%	90%
Delta Details →	SEA 00:29 → ATL 08:14DL 652	3h 12m Atlanta	ATL 11:26 → OMA 12:45DL 1125	10h 16m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	SEA 07:15 → SLC 10:26DL 2858	3h 04m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:30 → OMA 16:51DL 3896 · flown by SkyWest	7h 36m	96%	90%
Delta Details →	SEA 12:16 → MSP 17:35DL 536	3h 55m Minneapolis	MSP 21:30 → OMA 22:48DL 4014 · flown by SkyWest	8h 32m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	SEA 05:30 → DTW 12:42DL 812	3h 18m Detroit	DTW 16:00 → OMA 17:10DL 3889 · flown by SkyWest	9h 40m	99%	89%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SEA 17:59 → SLC 21:06DL 1165	50m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:56 → OMA 01:16 +1DL 3706 · flown by SkyWest	5h 17m	70%	66%
Delta Details →	SEA 12:16 → MSP 17:35DL 536	50m Minneapolis	MSP 18:25 → OMA 19:47DL 4024 · flown by SkyWest	5h 31m	75%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON