Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 4070 at 08:25 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–25%.

Safest bet that day DL 4070 SEA 08:25 → ONT 11:17 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AS 571 SEA 12:05 → ONT 14:37 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 4070 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 08:25	ONT 11:17	13%	4%	0.6%	89%
DL 4031 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 14:30	ONT 17:21	13%	3%	0.5%	88%
DL 3884 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 21:25	ONT 23:53	13%	3%	0.6%	84%
AS 1364 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:33	ONT 11:14	15%	3%	0.8%	90%
AS 592 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 16:36	ONT 19:08	25%	4%	0.6%	75%
AS 571 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 12:05	ONT 14:37	30%	3%	0.6%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON