Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 19 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 379 at 00:15 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–20%.

Safest bet that day AA 379 SEA 00:15 → ORD 05:59 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AS 429 SEA 12:33 → ORD 18:26 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 379 American Flight history →	SEA 00:15	ORD 05:59	10%	5%	0.6%	92%
UA 747 United Flight history →	SEA 23:11	ORD 05:18	10%	3%	0.5%	86%
AA 2379 American	SEA 00:09	ORD 05:59	10%	5%	0.6%	no record
AS 410 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 05:51	ORD 11:47	11%	3%	0.7%	72%
AA 1872 American	SEA 06:20	ORD 12:25	12%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 2108 Delta Flight history →	SEA 17:40	ORD 23:38	12%	4%	0.6%	76%
UA 2618 United Flight history →	SEA 07:00	ORD 13:15	13%	4%	0.6%	92%
DL 2055 Delta Flight history →	SEA 07:20	ORD 13:28	13%	5%	0.6%	85%
AS 328 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 00:17	ORD 06:20	13%	3%	0.7%	83%
UA 1265 United	SEA 16:58	ORD 22:59	17%	5%	0.5%	no record
AS 538 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 17:48	ORD 23:59	18%	3%	0.6%	80%
AA 1476 American	SEA 16:23	ORD 22:22	20%	6%	0.6%	no record
DL 637 Delta Flight history →	SEA 12:02	ORD 17:56	20%	5%	0.6%	72%
UA 2835 United Flight history →	SEA 10:52	ORD 17:05	22%	6%	0.6%	72%
AS 265 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:34	ORD 14:46	23%	6%	0.7%	77%
UA 2369 United	SEA 13:48	ORD 19:48	24%	6%	0.5%	no record
AA 3105 American	SEA 11:28	ORD 17:26	24%	8%	0.6%	no record
AA 2966 American Flight history →	SEA 13:44	ORD 19:46	30%	8%	0.6%	47%
AS 429 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 12:33	ORD 18:26	35%	5%	0.6%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON