Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 1114 at 21:20 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; morning flights run 19–23%.

Safest bet that day DL 1114 SEA 21:20 → PHL 05:29 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AS 442 SEA 08:28 → PHL 16:43 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1114 Delta Flight history →	SEA 21:20	PHL 05:29	10%	2%	0.6%	85%
AS 371 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 21:52	PHL 05:48	14%	2%	0.6%	90%
AA 2886 American Flight history →	SEA 22:41	PHL 06:43	19%	3%	0.6%	88%
AA 986 American	SEA 08:34	PHL 16:50	19%	5%	0.6%	no record
AS 442 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:28	PHL 16:43	23%	3%	0.6%	76%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	52m Denver	DEN 09:35 → PHL 15:12UA 1575	7h 12m	81%	72%
Delta Details →	SEA 07:15 → SLC 10:26DL 2858	54m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:20 → PHL 17:39DL 2022	7h 24m	76%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON