tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: American via O'Hare, leaving 13:44, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Pittsburgh on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 77 Alaska Flight history → SEA 22:37 PIT 06:10 19% 2% 0.6% 69%
AS 412 Alaska Flight history → SEA 09:34 PIT 17:12 20% 3% 0.6% 78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pittsburgh on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pittsburgh is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → SEA 00:15 → ORD 06:18AA 379 2h 02m Chicago ORD 08:20 → PIT 11:07AA 4478 · flown by Republic 7h 52m 100% 95%
DeltaDetails → SEA 00:13 → MSP 05:24DL 953 2h 05m Minneapolis MSP 07:29 → PIT 10:33DL 845 7h 20m 100% 94%
DeltaDetails → SEA 00:02 → ATL 07:46DL 652 3h 24m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → PIT 12:52DL 1345 9h 50m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128 2h 15m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → PIT 16:30DL 1188 8h 00m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → SEA 11:59 → ATL 20:04DL 554 3h 00m Atlanta ATL 23:04 → PIT 00:50 +1DL 1351 9h 51m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601 1h 22m Denver DEN 10:05 → PIT 15:16UA 1308 7h 16m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569 1h 30m Atlanta ATL 15:23 → PIT 17:08DL 1568 8h 08m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → SEA 12:16 → MSP 17:35DL 536 2h 11m Minneapolis MSP 19:46 → PIT 22:51DL 1134 7h 35m 98% 89%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SEA 10:34 → CLT 18:32AA 381 51m Charlotte CLT 19:23 → PIT 20:46AA 2676 7h 12m 67% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON