Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 11–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 4017 SEA 22:45 → PSC 23:53 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest DL 3891 SEA 13:40 → PSC 14:54 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 4017 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 22:45	PSC 23:53	11%	3%	0.6%	83%
OO 3378 SkyWest	SEA 16:14	PSC 17:13	15%	5%	0.5%	no record
OO 3217 SkyWest	SEA 22:56	PSC 23:51	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 3140 SkyWest	SEA 09:12	PSC 10:20	16%	5%	0.5%	no record
DL 3992 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 10:35	PSC 11:43	18%	5%	0.5%	86%
DL 3891 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 13:40	PSC 14:54	20%	4%	0.5%	83%
AS 2195 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 08:52	PSC 09:53	10%	0%	0.0%	90%
AS 2403 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 22:44	PSC 23:43	13%	3%	0.0%	87%
AS 2367 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 16:28	PSC 17:27	18%	2%	0.7%	82%
AS 2417 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 21:35	PSC 22:37	33%	7%	6.2%	67%
AS 2306 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 11:20	PSC 12:19	42%	8%	0.0%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON