Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 4047 at 21:35 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; morning flights run 18%.

Safest bet that day DL 4047 SEA 21:35 → RDM 22:57 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AS 275 SEA 12:39 → RDM 13:18 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 4047 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 21:35	RDM 22:57	9%	5%	0.8%	91%
DL 4141 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 17:25	RDM 18:43	14%	5%	0.8%	89%
AS 2388 Alaska flown by Horizon Flight history →	SEA 20:12	RDM 21:27	15%	6%	1.0%	86%
QX 2273 Horizon	SEA 22:43	RDM 23:59	16%	6%	1.0%	no record
DL 3735 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 11:22	RDM 12:45	18%	7%	0.8%	90%
OO 3063 SkyWest	SEA 08:16	RDM 09:33	18%	10%	1.0%	no record
QX 2355 Horizon	SEA 08:30	RDM 09:41	18%	7%	1.2%	no record
AS 275 Alaska	SEA 12:39	RDM 13:18	31%	6%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON