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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 00:13, is the safest bet: 93% chance of reaching Raleigh/Durham on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 489 Delta Flight history → SEA 15:55 RDU 23:55 12% 3% 0.6% 77%
AS 572 Alaska Flight history → SEA 08:20 RDU 16:31 20% 3% 0.6% 84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → SEA 00:15 → ORD 06:18AA 379 2h 00m Chicago ORD 08:18 → RDU 11:38AA 4354 · flown by Republic 8h 23m 100% 95%
DeltaDetails → SEA 00:02 → ATL 07:46DL 652 3h 26m Atlanta ATL 11:12 → RDU 12:42DL 1488 9h 40m 100% 94%
DeltaDetails → SEA 00:13 → MSP 05:24DL 953 1h 40m Minneapolis MSP 07:04 → RDU 10:40DL 2519 7h 27m 97% 93%
DeltaDetails → SEA 05:30 → DTW 12:42DL 812 3h 20m Detroit DTW 16:02 → RDU 17:47DL 1407 9h 17m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → SEA 11:20 → DTW 18:37DL 1706 3h 03m Detroit DTW 21:40 → RDU 23:25DL 2839 9h 05m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → SEA 16:25 → LAS 19:00DL 2955 3h 17m Las Vegas LAS 22:17 → RDU 05:44 +1DL 822 10h 19m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569 3h 25m Atlanta ATL 17:18 → RDU 18:54DL 1097 9h 54m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → SEA 06:05 → MSP 11:24DL 943 2h 56m Minneapolis MSP 14:20 → RDU 17:51DL 2699 8h 46m 98% 90%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON