Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: OO 3136 at 21:21 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24–25%.

Safest bet that day OO 3136 SEA 21:21 → RNO 23:00 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 273 SEA 11:53 → RNO 13:50 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 3136 SkyWest	SEA 21:21	RNO 23:00	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 598 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 17:07	RNO 18:54	24%	3%	0.6%	75%
AS 273 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:53	RNO 13:50	25%	3%	0.6%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON