tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, AS 610 at 16:20, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 610 Alaska SEA 16:20 SBA 18:36 19% 3% 0.8% no record
AS 2142 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record SEA 07:40 SBA 10:14 16% 0% 0.0% 84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Barbara on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128 2h 20m Salt Lake City SLC 10:50 → SBA 11:59DL 3841 · flown by SkyWest 6h 29m 99% 93%
DeltaDetails → SEA 11:09 → SLC 14:15DL 1265 2h 53m Salt Lake City SLC 17:08 → SBA 18:16DL 3853 · flown by SkyWest 7h 07m 99% 92%
AlaskaDetails → SEA 06:42 → PDX 07:37AS 2432 · flown by Horizon 3h 10m Portland PDX 10:47 → SBA 13:05AS 2317 · flown by Horizon 6h 23m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601 2h 43m Denver DEN 11:26 → SBA 13:02UA 671 8h 02m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → SEA 08:45 → SFO 11:03UA 2831 2h 47m San Francisco SFO 13:50 → SBA 15:17UA 5464 · flown by SkyWest 6h 32m 97% 80%
AmericanDetails → SEA 12:04 → PHX 15:13AA 4117 · flown by Envoy 1h 51m Phoenix PHX 17:04 → SBA 18:49AA 1855 6h 45m 95% 80%
AlaskaDetails → SEA 07:43 → SAN 10:19AS 1367 2h 30m San Diego SAN 12:49 → SBA 14:02AS 2177 · flown by Horizon 6h 19m 97% 59%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SEA 07:29 → SFO 09:35UA 499 54m San Francisco SFO 10:29 → SBA 11:52UA 1578 4h 23m 69% 59%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON