Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Alaska via Juneau, leaving 07:08, is the safest bet: 66% chance of reaching Sitka on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Sitka on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sitka is 1 h behind Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	SEA 07:08 → JNU 08:44AS 61	1h 11m Juneau	JNU 09:55 → SIT 10:40AS 62	4h 32m	82%	66%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	SEA 15:37 → KTN 16:43AS 67	56m Ketchikan	KTN 17:39 → SIT 18:32AS 67	3h 55m	72%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON