Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Tomorrow: AS 699 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–25%.

Safest bet that day AS 699 SEA 06:40 → SNA 09:26 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest OO 3694 SEA 08:38 → SNA 11:29 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 699 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 06:40	SNA 09:26	8%	2%	0.7%	92%
AS 631 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 19:10	SNA 22:01	13%	2%	0.7%	80%
DL 3695 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 19:56	SNA 22:45	13%	3%	0.7%	60%
OO 3697 SkyWest	SEA 14:49	SNA 17:56	19%	5%	0.6%	no record
AS 759 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:18	SNA 11:15	22%	5%	0.7%	86%
AS 1475 Alaska	SEA 15:45	SNA 18:19	22%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 773 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 13:49	SNA 16:41	24%	3%	0.6%	87%worse than usual
DL 1001 Delta	SEA 10:51	SNA 13:29	25%	5%	0.7%	no record
AS 1357 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:06	SNA 13:55	25%	4%	0.6%	85%worse than usual
AS 687 Alaska	SEA 17:36	SNA 20:02	25%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 3694 SkyWest	SEA 08:38	SNA 11:29	26%	7%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON