Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Tampa on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Nonstops that day


DL 358 Delta Flight history →	SEA 11:45	TPA 20:19	19%	5%	1.2%	79%
AS 326 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:44	TPA 17:53	30%	4%	1.2%	85%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SEA 17:59 → SLC 21:06DL 1165	2h 44m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:50 → TPA 06:01 +1DL 2077	9h 02m	99%	89%
American Details →	SEA 00:15 → ORD 06:18AA 379	2h 47m Chicago	ORD 09:05 → TPA 12:56AA 2920	9h 41m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	SEA 09:45 → DTW 17:04DL 2324	2h 55m Detroit	DTW 19:59 → TPA 22:35DL 1355	9h 50m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	SEA 12:16 → MSP 17:35DL 536	2h 40m Minneapolis	MSP 20:15 → TPA 00:15 +1DL 2385	8h 59m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	SEA 00:02 → ATL 07:46DL 652	2h 14m Atlanta	ATL 10:00 → TPA 11:29DL 1587	8h 27m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	SEA 17:30 → LAX 20:13DL 2861	2h 21m Los Angeles	LAX 22:34 → TPA 06:16 +1DL 910	9h 46m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569	2h 27m Atlanta	ATL 16:20 → TPA 17:55DL 1425	8h 55m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	SEA 11:59 → ATL 20:04DL 554	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → TPA 00:29 +1DL 1560	9h 30m	99%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SEA 10:22 → DFW 16:30AA 707	53m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:23 → TPA 20:51AA 2401	7h 29m	71%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON